In February 2025, the Japanese government announced its greenhouse gas reduction targets (NDCs) for 2035 and 2040, along with a new strategic energy plan reflecting these goals. In response, Renewable Energy Institute published energy transition scenarios for 2035 and 2040. These scenarios outline a pathway to achieving emissions reductions that are aligned with the IPCC's 1.5°C scenario, while also strengthening Japan's economic competitiveness and ensuring a stable energy supply.
During the formulation of the national strategic energy plan, the Institute released columns, commentaries, and information packs that presented data, case studies, and critical perspectives. In addition, the Institute has previously developed energy transition scenarios for 2030 and 2050.
Comments & Infopacks 2030 2035 2040 2050 Columns
Comments ＆ Infopacks
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Comment 20 February 2025 |
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Comment 20 December 2024 |
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Comment 29 November 2024 |
| Infopack (in Japanese) 19 September 2024 Key Issues to Address in Japan's Strategic Energy Plan |
Proposal towards 2040
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- Reports & Proposals
REI Energy Transition Scenario Through Renewable Energy
Prospects Toward 2040 (Revised 1st Edition)
25 December 2024 - REI's 2040 scenario demonstrates that by effectively utilizing Japan's domestic renewable energy potential, more than 90% of electricity could be supplied by renewable energy such as solar and wind power, ensuring stable electricity supply throughout the year. Along with decarbonizing electricity through renewable energy, advancing electrification and energy efficiency would significantly reduce reliance on fossil fuels, improving energy self-sufficiency from the current 13% to around 60%.
- Reports & Proposals
Proposal towards 2035
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- Reports & Proposals
Energy Transition Scenarios for Decarbonization
Based on 80% Renewables Electricity by 2035
19 June 2024 - This energy transition scenario sets out how Japan can reduce CO2 emissions by more than 65% from 2019 levels by 2035, the 1.5°C scenario called for by the IPCC, while maintaining manufacturing industries such as steel production in Japan and attracting new industries such as data centers and semiconductors. While there are arguments that nuclear power and thermal power with CCS are necessary to achieve decarbonization and energy security in Japan, the Institute's scenario shows that significant CO2 reductions can be achieved without relying on nuclear and coal-fired power, through the mass deployment of solar, wind and other renewables to provide up to 80% of electricity supply by 2035, together with storage batteries, and through enhanced development of the electricity grid.
- Reports & Proposals
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- Reports & Proposals
Proposal for the 2035 Energy Mix (First Edition)
Toward Decarbonizing Electricity with Renewable Energy
11 April 2023 - This report is the first in Japan since the release of the IPCC report to present the potential of supplying more than 80% of electricity in Japan from renewable energy sources by 2035, while identifying its possibilities and challenges with the aim of achieving a 65% reduction in CO2 emissions. The report specifically analyzes the current development status of solar power, as well as both onshore and offshore wind power, and makes seven recommendations for accelerating their introduction. Further, if 80% of electricity is supplied by renewables, the cost of fossil fuels required for power generation can be reduced by 80%, saving approximately 4 trillion yen annually in overseas capital outflow.
- Reports & Proposals
Proposals towards 2030
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- Reports & Proposals
Verification of Electricity Supply-Demand Balance and Costs in 2030
26 March 2021 - In the “Proposal for 2030 Energy Mix in Japan (First Edition)” released in August 2020, Renewable Energy Institute identified two issues requiring further consideration in connection with the sustainable energy mix: stable supply at all hours, and affordable energy supply. This study considers these two issues in detail by conducting analysis using an inter-regional supply-and-demand model.
- Reports & Proposals
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- Reports & Proposals
Proposal for 2030 Energy Mix in Japan (First Edition)
Establish a Society Based on Renewable Energy
2 September 2020 (original Japanese released in August 2020) - This proposal shows that it is feasible to achieve a "sustainable electricity generation mix", which is supplied by 45% of renewable energy and not dependent on nuclear nor coal-fired generation by 2030, provided that the appropriate policy measures are taken to realize this energy transition.
- Reports & Proposals
Proposals towards 2050
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- Reports & Proposals
Renewable Pathways: The Strategies to 100% RE for a Carbon-neutral Japan
9 March 2021 (in Japanese) - The report examines renewable pathways to Japan's 2050 decarbonization and suggests the most critical policies that need to be implemented based on an additional analysis made on the REI-Agora-LUT joint study.
Since Prime Minister Suga declared Japan to become carbon-neutral by 2050, discussions for attaining zero-emissions has accelerated. The report responds to the ongoing discussions on targets and policy for 2030 and 2050, as well as discussions on the revision of Japan’s Strategic Energy Plan and Global Warming Countermeasure Plans.
- Reports & Proposals
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- Joint Study
Renewable Pathways to Climate-neutral Japan
Reaching Zero Emissions by 2050 in the Energy System
9 March 2021 - A joint report by Renewable Energy Institute (REI), Agora Energiewende, and LUT University finds that a zero-carbon energy supply based solely on renewables would be affordable in Japan. The study sets forth a three-step roadmap for renewables deployment and electrification.
- Joint Study
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- Reports & Proposals
Proposal for Energy Strategy Toward a Decarbonized Society
Achieving a Carbon-Neutral Japan by 2050
31 May 2019 (original Japanese released in April 2019) - The Long-Term Strategy to be formulated by the government should be centered around energy efficiency and renewable energy expansion, in order to enable significant reduction in domestic CO2 emissions through to 2030 and forging a path to zero net emissions by 2050. From this point of view, the proposal raises particularly important issues, together with accompanying data, around the topic of electricity generated from renewable energy, coal-fired power, CCS and hydrogen evaluation, industry, buildings, and traffic measures.
- Reports & Proposals
Columns Series: Key Issues to Address in Japan's Strategic Energy Plan
25 January 2025 No.12
13 November 2024 No.11
23 October 2024 No.10
27 September 2024 No.9
23 August 2024 No.8
15 August 2024 No.7
15 August 2024 No.6
14 August 2024 No.5
19 July 2024 No.4
14 August 2024 No.3
5 August 2024 No.2
5 August 2024 No.1<Related Links>
Key Issues to Address in Japan's Strategic Energy Plan: Can it Pave the Way for Decarbonization? (3 October 2024)
