Verification of Electricity Supply-Demand Balance and Costs in 2030

26 March 2021

in Japanese

Renewable Energy Institute today released the English version of the report "Verification of Electricity Supply and Demand Balance and Costs in 2030" originally published on 10 February 2021 in Japanese.
Accelerating renewable energy deployment is the most critical issue in realizing Japan's decarbonization. This report is based on an analysis of an inter-regional supply-demand model, which has shown us that even if the renewable energy share is raised to 45%, more than double the current target, it is possible to maintain the FY2030 supply and demand balance, with virtually no reliance on nuclear or coal-fired thermal power. It also reveals that electricity costs can be lower than in FY2019.  
In August last year, Renewable Energy Institute proposed a "sustainable energy mix" of which 45% is supplied by renewable energy.  Since then, the propsal to raise the target for renewable energy in 2030 to 40–45% or higher has rapidly spread to Japan’s companies and local government groups.
On the other hand, existing power companies have frequently argued and expressed negative views claiming that renewable energy will not ensure stable power supply and that it will increase the burden of electricity costs on people. This report shows that these claims are not accurate.
The Japanese government is currently working to review the Strategic Energy Plan around June to August this year. We hope that this study will provide guidance to the government for making truly informed energy policy decisions to accelerate Japan’s transition towards a carbon neutral and sustainable society.

Verification of Electricity Supply-Demand Balance and Costs in 2030


Teruyuki Ohno, Executive Director of Renewable Energy Institute comments:
"For Japan to reach carbon neutrality in 2050, it is essential to raise the 2030 renewable energy target to at least 45%, around twofold of the current scenario.  This study clearly shows that it is possible both technologically and economically to raise the target to this degree. 2030 is just around the corner and right energy policy measures need to be implemented immediately."

<Table of Contents>
Introduction: Background and Objectives    
1    Methods and parameters    
   1.1    Analysis based on an inter-regional supply-demand model
   1.2    Main inputs    
   1.3    Sustainable energy mix evaluation parameters    
2    Verification of supply stability    
   2.1    Electricity generation mix in FY2030    
   2.2    Electricity generation mix in FY2030 (by area)
   2.3    Supply-demand structure during peak summer demand    
   2.4    Supply-demand structure during peak winter demand    
   2.5    Supply-demand structure during minimum spring demand    
   2.6    Verification of supply stability    
3    Assessment of economic impacts (affordability assessment)    
   3.1    Scope of electricity costs   
   3.2    Scope of electricity costs considered by this report
   3.4    Method used for considering electricity costs    
   3.5    Results of considering electricity costs    
4    Conclusions and issues going forward

<Related Links>
Proposal for 2030 Energy Mix in Japan (First Edition): Establish a Society Based on Renewable Energy (6 August 2020)


External Links

  • JCI 気候変動イニシアティブ
  • 自然エネルギー協議会
  • 指定都市 自然エネルギー協議会
  • irelp
  • 全球能源互联网发展合作组织

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