Note: English version of the report added on 18 May 2023. The English version is a preliminary and partial translation of the Japanese original which was released on 11 April.
Renewable Energy Institute today released "Proposal for the 2035 Energy Mix (First Edition): Toward Decarbonizing Electricity with Renewable Energy".
On 20 March, the IPCC released its Sixth Assessment Report, calling on the world to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 65% from 2019 levels by 2035 if there remains any hope of keeping the window open to realize the 1.5-degree target.
Renewable Energy Institute’s report is the first in Japan since the release of the IPCC report to present the potential of supplying more than 80% of electricity in Japan from renewable energy sources by 2035, while identifying its possibilities and challenges with the aim of achieving a 65% reduction in CO2 emissions.
The report specifically analyzes the current development status of solar power, as well as both onshore and offshore wind power, and makes seven recommendations for accelerating their introduction. Further, if 80% of electricity is supplied by renewables, the cost of fossil fuels required for power generation can be reduced by 80%, saving approximately 4 trillion yen annually in overseas capital outflow.
The G7 agreed at last year's summit to “commit to achieving a fully or predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035” and the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report reiterates the importance of this G7 agreement. We need an urgent discussion on how to achieve electricity decarbonization, particularly in Japan.
Following the proposal for the electricity sector in this report, Renewable Energy Institute continues to study the challenges of decarbonization, including heat and fuel, thus reducing further emissions, while also pursuing the possibility of further expanding renewable energy in the process.
We hope that this report will stimulate discussion in Japan on the energy transformation to 2035, and in that process, enable further acceleration of emission reductions and the introduction of renewables by 2030.
Proposal for the 2035 Energy Mix (First Edition)
Toward Decarbonizing Electricity with Renewable Energy
Note: The English version of the report is a preliminary and partial translation of the Japanese original (18 May 2023)
Summary (release date: 11 April 2023)
1. Through the implementation of regulatory reforms and the introduction of promotional measures, solar power generation can be enhanced to 280 GW, or 3.5 times the current level, and wind power generation to 60 GW, or 13 times the current level by 2035.
2. These measures would allow for 80% of electricity to be supplied by renewables in 2035. Carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector would be reduced by 73%. Fuel costs for thermal power generation can be reduced by 4 trillion yen annually.
3. Even in Japan, where renewable energy has been relatively expensive compared to the rest of the world, the cost of solar power generation will be about 5 JPY/kWh in 2030, onshore wind power is expected to cost around 6.6 JPY/kWh, and offshore wind power is expected to cost less than 10 JPY/kWh. This level is cheaper than the government-promoted nuclear power, thermal power with CCS, and coal-ammonia power generation, making the mass introduction of solar and wind power generation an economically justifiable choice.
4. In order to realize the accelerated introduction of renewable energy, efforts must be made to include the following:
(1) Prompt revision of the Strategic Energy Plan and increase the 2035 renewable energy electricity target to more than 80％
(2) Implementation of regulatory reform to halve the development period for onshore and offshore wind power generation
(3) Nationwide expansion of the obligation to install solar PV in new buildings, including residences
(4) Commencement of full-scale reinforcement of the power grid connecting Hokkaido and Honshu.
Table of ContentsChapter 1. Accelerating the energy transformation to overcome the climate and energy crises
Chapter 2. Solar PV development potential
Chapter 3. Wind power development potential
Chapter 4. Potential for non-variable renewables
Section 1. Bioenergy power development potential
Section 2. Hydroelectric power development potential
Section 3. Geothermal power development potential
Chapter 5. Electricity supply mix in 2035
Section 1. Electricity demand outlook in 2035
Section 2. Projected supply potential of each power source
Section 3. The shape of the 2035 electricity mix toward decarbonization
Chapter 6. Proposals for 2035 decarbonization pathway electricity mix