Renewable Energy Institute (REI) announced the "Energy Transition Scenario Through Renewable Energy: Prospects Toward 2040 (1st Edition)" on 12 December. Based on the government's draft of the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, published on 17 December, and the Global Warming Countermeasures Plan released on 19 December, REI has now published a revised version (Revised 1st Edition) in English on 25 December 2024.
Additionally, during the joint meeting of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of Environment (MoE) on the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) held on 24 December, a document outlining REI’s 2040 scenario was published. This document (in Japanese only) details various modeling techniques and highlights key considerations when using model calculations as references for policymaking.
The government's draft Plan expects the share of renewable energy in electricity supply to remain at 40-50% by 2040, with only a 10% reduction in final energy consumption. As a result, the plan relies heavily on nuclear power and fossil fuel-based electricity generation.
In contrast, REI's 2040 scenario demonstrates that by effectively utilizing Japan's domestic renewable energy potential, more than 90% of electricity could be supplied by renewable energy such as solar and wind power, ensuring stable electricity supply throughout the year.
Along with decarbonizing electricity through renewable energy, advancing electrification and energy efficiency would significantly reduce reliance on fossil fuels, improving energy self-sufficiency from the current 13% to around 60%.
Renewable Energy Institute aims for its 2040 scenario to drive a transformative energy policy in Japan that delivers decarbonization, energy security, reliable supply, and cost efficiency.
<Table of Contents>
1. 2040 Scenario for Achieving the 1.5°C Emissions Pathway through Renewable Energy in JapanThe Fundamental Approach to Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050 Presented at the Joint Meeting of METI and MOE
The Global GHG Emission Reductions Required to Limit Warming to 1.5°C based on IPCC AR6
Trends in Non-Energy-Related CO₂ and Non-CO₂ GHG Emissions Since 1990
Assumptions for the 2040 REI scenario
Assumptions for 2040 Scenario: Energy Demand
Assumptions for 2040 Scenario
Calculation Conditions for Power Supply and Demand Simulation Software “PROMOD”
Results of 2040 Scenario Supply and Demand Simulation Analysis
2. Comparison of the REI’s 2040 scenario with Government Proposal and Other Scenarios
3. Conclusion
<Related Links>
[Comment] A Dangerous Path that Could Undermine Japan's Competitiveness Through Failed Decarbonization and Rising Costs: A Call to Unlock the Full Potential of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (20 December 2024)
[Comment] Proposed "60% Reduction Target by 2035" Only Represents 49%: A Shortfall and Missed Opportunity for a Developed Nation (29 November 2024)
[Column Series] Key Issues to Address in Japan's Strategic Energy Plan
Energy Transition Scenarios for Decarbonization: Based on 80% Renewables Electricity by 2035 (19 June 2024)