Energy Transition Scenarios for DecarbonizationBased on 80% Renewables Electricity by 2035

in Japanese

Renewable Energy Institute today released "Energy Transition Scenarios for Decarbonization: Based on 80% Renewables Electricity by 2035" (in Japanese).

A new Strategic Energy Plan is under discussion and is expected to be finalized early next year. The Institute's proposed energy transition scenario sets out how Japan can reduce CO₂ emissions by more than 65% from 2019 levels by 2035, the 1.5°C scenario called for by the IPCC, while maintaining manufacturing industries such as steel production in Japan and attracting new industries such as data centers and semiconductors.

While there are arguments that nuclear power and thermal power with CCS are necessary to achieve decarbonization and energy security in Japan, the Institute's scenario shows that significant CO₂ reductions can be achieved without relying on nuclear and coal-fired power, through the mass deployment of solar, wind and other renewables to provide up to 80% of electricity supply by 2035, together with storage batteries, and through enhanced development of the electricity grid.

It is hoped that this scenario can bring new perspectives to the discussion on the Strategic Energy Plan and to the discussion on the formulation of a new NDC for the period up to 2035.
 

Key Findings

1. This study showed that a 66% reduction in CO₂ emissions in 2035 (compared to 2019) is possible with electricity decarbonization (80% RE) + strategic electrification (such as steel production) + aggressive efficiency improvements, while maintaining the domestic industrial base. Massive deployment of renewables in Japan will enable to:

1) Decarbonize the manufacturing industry, including steel production, which will lead to maintaining international competitiveness.
2) Make renewable energy available and affordable, thereby attracting data centers, semiconductor plants, and other facilities to be cited in Japan.
3) Create additional demand for steel and cement through extensive and continued development of offshore wind farms and power grids.

2. The simulation showed that an electricity system with 80% renewable could supply hourly electricity demand throughout FY 2035. Solar and wind supplied 50% of electricity, with batteries and enhanced grid connections enabling storage and inter-regional coordination. (The simulation software PROMOD by Hitachi Energy was used for this simulation. It was used to simulate the national master plan of the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators, JAPAN (OCCTO)).
3. The cost of electricity generation in 2035 is estimated to be 11.2 yen/kWh(75USD/MWh) including the cost of batteries, and 11.9 yen/kWh (79USD/MWh) including the cost of grid enhancement. The latter figure is exactly the same level as before the electricity price hike caused by the increase in fossil fuel prices after the invasion of Ukraine.
4. Energy security will be improved by reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels. Massive deployment of renewables will lead to a future where hydrogen is produced domestically from surplus renewable electricity. The price of electricity price will be relatively stable even in the case of fossil fuel price hikes, such as after the invasion of Ukraine. Calculations have shown that the increase in price of electricity will be limited to 1.2-2.5 yen/kWh, assuming the same price hike as caused by the invasion of Ukraine, where the current electricity mix will lead to an increase of 4.6-6.5 yen/kWh.
5. The key to achieving decarbonization, a low-cost and stable supply is the mass deployment of solar, wind power, and storage batteries, and the enhancement of the power grid. The report shows that we need to start now. Renewable energy generation capacity should be increased to 3.3 times current levels, and 72 GW/184 GWh of electricity storage capacity installed. The current cross-regional network development plan for the interconnection lines between Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Tokyo should be further increased to 8 GW-12 GW by 2035.

<Table of Contents>
Introduction
Summary
1. Electric power innovation advancing around the world
2. Simulation: 65% CO₂ reduction, 80% renewables electricity in 2035
　2-1. Energy Analysis: How can Japan achieve 65% CO2 reduction by 2035?
　2-2. Renewables potentials in Japan
　2-3. 80% renewables electricity system in 2035
3. Recommendation
4. Story: How is the life in REI’s scenario in 2035?


<Related Links>
[Symposium] Decarbonization Scenarios for Japan: The Way Forward for the Strategic Energy Plan (21 June 2024)