(originally published in Japanese on 12 July 2024)
Discussions have begun on the next Strategic Energy Plan and the review of Japan's greenhouse gas reduction target (NDC). At the Strategic Policy Committee meetings, which METI serves as the secretariat, discussions that will have a major impact on the future of Japan's energy policy have been progressing at a rapid pace since mid-May, with meetings taking place every two weeks.
What is noteworthy about these discussions is the strong sense of urgency conveyed by the government that the success or failure of securing decarbonized energy will determine Japan's future. In his opening remarks at the May 15 Committee meeting, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Saito stated, "It is no exaggeration to say that a stable supply of decarbonized energy will greatly determine our national strength." The documents provided by the secretariat also clearly pointed out the current situation in which most of the foreign currency earned from high value-added products such as automobiles and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, is largely lost by expenditure on fossil fuel imports.
The Japanese government is absolutely correct in recognizing that the success or failure of the transition to a decarbonized energy system will determine the future of Japan's economy and society. If renewables and nuclear power are considered as decarbonized electricity, Japan has the lowest share of decarbonized sources in the total electricity generation among the G7 member countries. If only renewables are compared, only the U.S. has a lower share than Japan. Nevertheless, annual solar power generation in the U.S. is growing rapidly, reaching around 40 GW by 2023. This growth is occurring at a rate six times faster than in Japan. All G7 members except Japan are, to a considerable extent, on track to achieve the goal of decarbonizing all energy sources by 2035.
RE100, the Japan Climate Initiative (JCI), and the Japan Climate Leaders Partnership (JCLP) have recently submitted a series of proposals to the Japanese government calling for accelerated renewable energy deployment. The proposals stem from a deep awareness that if Japan does not change, it will not be possible to continue to do business in Japan and to compete in the international marketplace.
The question is what kind of policies Japan should adopt to enable the country to make the transition to a decarbonized energy system. Will these policies be sufficient to achieve the emissions reductions at the rate required to avert a climate crisis and to secure the affordable and stable energy supply that is needed to support Japan's industry and society?
At the June 17 Committee meeting, the following nine topics were presented for future discussion. Relevant materials were submitted for discussion at each of the Committee meetings by the secretariat, experts, companies, and others.
(1) Potential increase in electricity demand due to progress in digital transformation, green transformation, etc. |
While many of the materials submitted to the Strategic Policy Committee so far have been accurate in presenting the energy situation and policy trends in the world and in Japan, some of them are questionable in their validity.
The argument that AI will increase demand for electricity, the “emission reduction efforts are on track” explanation based on fiscal 2013 data when GHG emissions peaked, and materials that highlight the characteristics (benefits) of nuclear power without addressing the issues that have arisen in other countries, such as high costs and construction delays, are examples of this.
On June 19, Renewable Energy Institute released “Energy Transition Scenarios for Decarbonization: Based on 80% Renewables Electricity by 2035,” which outlines measures to achieve emissions reductions consistent with the IPCC's 1.5°C scenario, while maintaining manufacturing in Japan and bringing in new industries.
In addition to the 2035 scenario that has been published as a proposal for formulating the next Strategic Energy Plan and NDC review, Renewable Energy Institute is launching a new series of columns that will present data and case studies in relation to discussion points raised at the Strategic Policy Committee and highlight key issues for further debate.
Renewable Energy Institute aims to contribute to constructive discussions on the development of the next Strategic Energy Plan and NDC review. This will be implemented through a variety of methods, including disseminating information through a series of columns, engaging with companies, local governments, NGOs, policy makers, and by organizing public events.
[Special Contents] Key Issues to Address in Japan's Strategic Energy Plan