The Middle East crisis triggered by the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel is threatening the stability of global energy supply. Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate stands at just 15.3%, which is extremely low compared to Europe, the United States, and China. While Japan maintains crude oil reserves equivalent to approximately 250 days of consumption, its natural gas reserves cover only about three weeks. Even if supply volumes are secured, the impact of price surges is unavoidable and is already becoming evident.
The government is moving forward with measures such as releasing oil reserves, securing alternative fossil fuel supply routes, and providing subsidies for gasoline prices. While some of these may be necessary as short-term responses, they remain fundamentally reactive. Since the first oil crisis in 1973, Japan has repeatedly faced volatility in fossil fuel prices and risks to stable supply due to geopolitical developments. The root cause lies in its low energy self-sufficiency rate, which has remained largely unchanged at around 15–17% since the early 1970s.
In response to the first oil crisis, Japan launched the Sunshine Project, which paved the way for the commercialization of solar power and accelerated efforts in wind and geothermal energy development. As highlighted in the United Nations report “Seizing the Moment of Opportunity” published last year, renewable energy is now the cheapest and fastest source of power to deploy. The report emphasizes that expanding renewable energy is key to overcoming the vulnerabilities associated with fossil fuel dependence and strengthening energy security.
Renewable Energy Institute’s 2040 scenario, published last year, shows that by utilizing domestic potential for solar and wind power, alongside investments in grid infrastructure and storage, and through improvements in energy efficiency and electrification, Japan could increase its energy self-sufficiency to around 75% by 2040.
Prime Minister Takaichi, during her campaign for the Liberal Democratic Party presidency last October, stated her intention to “end diplomacy that relies on bowing to resource-rich countries,” and advocated for achieving 100% domestic energy self-sufficiency. In response to the current Middle East crisis, the South Korean government has already announced a policy to pursue a rapid and large-scale transition to renewable energy. ASEAN, in a statement issued at its economic ministers’ meeting on March 13, also expressed its intention to accelerate the transition to renewable energy in light of the current situation.
At a time when the Middle East crisis once again highlights the risks associated with dependence on imported fossil fuels, should Japan not shift its policies to fully harness the benefits of renewable energy technologies that it once pioneered?
There are many measures the government can and should take to increase energy self-sufficiency, including expanding solar sharing (agrivoltaics), mandating solar installations on residential and commercial buildings, accelerating the development of onshore and offshore wind power, and establishing legal frameworks to promote geothermal energy.
Expanding renewable energy is the key pillar of Japan’s GX (Green Transformation) strategy, enabling the simultaneous achievement of energy security, economic growth, and decarbonization. We urge the Japanese government to implement urgent and structural measures to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
