In the midst of the global energy crisis, energy prices have skyrocketed in Japan, and the power sector has seen the withdrawal of power providers from the market, the emergence of "electricity refugees," and a growing concern over a tightening in the power supply capacity. In response, some argue that the transition to decarbonization has been promoted too quickly or that we need to restart nuclear power plants as soon as possible, saying that the power system restructuring itself was a mistake.
However, the original cause of this crisis was the instability of the fossil fuel supply system, as demonstrated in several past iterations of such crises, including the 1970s oil crisis. The more fundamental factors behind the crisis that Japan is facing are the slow energy transition and inadequate electricity system reform, as the share of renewable energy is less than half that of other leading developed countries and market mechanisms have not been effectively utilized.
From this perspective, this recommendation document focuses on the power sector, analyzes the structure of the current energy crisis, and makes recommendations to accelerate and thoroughly implement the initially intended power system restructuring with the goal of overcoming the crisis, securing a stable supply of electricity, and eliminating fossil fuels.
We hope that our recommendations will contribute to constructive discussions on energy policy.
<Table of Contents>
Chapter 1: The Structure of the Energy Crisis
Section 1: The background of soaring electricity prices and the problem of electricity refugees
Section 2: The background of tight electricity supply
Section 3: The reality of supply capacity shortfall and the contributions of photovoltaic (PV) power
Chapter 2: The Outcomes of the 10-Year Power System Restructuring and Challenges for the Future
Section 1: Outcomes of the 10-Year Power System Restructuring
Section 2: Issues identified amid the energy crisis
Chapter 3: Recommendations for Achieving a Stable Electricity Supply Based on the Concept of Power System Restructuring
Section 1: Short-term measures (within one to two years)
Section 2: Medium-term measures (up to five years)
Section 3: Long-term measures (up to 10 years)
Reference 1: Introduction of household solar PV systems and battery storage and simulation of economic efficiency
Reference 2: Simulation of an electric power supply from a 49 kW PV power station operated under FiP with the introduction of overloading and battery storage